The Liberal Democrats are set to retain their seat as their historic Conservative rivals lose ground to Reform, according to the results of a Nub News poll.

The independent survey of Teddington and Twickenham Nub News newsletter subscribers found nearly 59% of readers would vote to reelect Lib Dem Munira Wilson if the election was held today – a small gain of 2.6% over the previous general election held in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Conservative vote has been slashed from 34% to 13%, with candidate Jonathan Tulley losing significant ground to Alex Starling from Reform UK.

The two candidates are neck-and-neck, with the Nigel Farage-led Reform edging into second place with a 1.5% lead.

Labour's popularity has remained consistent, with its 8.5% share in the Nub News poll almost identical to that of the last election.

The remainder of respondents – just over 5% – indicated their support for either the Green Party (4%) or the four-year-old Workers Party of Great Britain (1%).

While this early polling suggests the Lib Dems will retain their seat in the Twickenham constituency, the Conservative party's losses to Reform could be signs of a shift in its reputation as a two-party seat.

Results in full:

• Munira Wilson, Liberal Democrats – 58.74%
• Alex Starling, Reform UK – 14.50%
• Jonathan Hulley, Conservative Party – 13.01%
• Tom Bruce, Labour Party – 8.55%
• Chantal Kerr-Sheppard, Green Party – 4.09%
• Umair Malik, Workers Party – 1.12%

Teddington and Twickenham Nub News polled 269 newsletter subscribers between 12.30pm on Wednesday, June 12, and midnight on Thursday, June 13. Readers were only able to register a single vote for one of the seven candidates. Results were not weighted demographically.

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